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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: bearshark who wrote (34590)	11/30/1998 1:10:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) of 94695

Bearshark; Avoid the oil service stocks, while there may be a few consolidations getting them right is hard, all in all Big Companies will cut back on spending, and drilling will take a back seat. There will be hype from time to time as money managers try to unwind, but the sector as a whole will continue on down. If you play oil stay with BIG caps and companies that pay a dividend. They brought this on by jacking up oil prices in 96, the cycle won't let up till Asia countries get on their feet and can afford to pay $18 a barrel, till then it will be tough, like China has made big moves towards using coal. ( something they have ) And oil poor countries have started cutting back in a lot of ways. Oil is the life blood, and when they jacked it up they helped set up a recession , it just takes time for the impact to work it's way through. The service companies ( most of them run a lot of debt ) and that will add to their problems. They are getting a reprieve with the lower interest rates but it won't be enough. You may play with the sector and get a winner from time to time, but all in all it's out of favor, and your more subject to get burned. Jim BTW Message 6533582

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