Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: jbe who wrote (32278)	11/30/1998 5:24:00 PM
From: Rob Shilling	Read Replies (1) of 95453

<<S0 -- which way should I go? Sell my oil service stocks -- down more than 60% since I bought them -- and take a nice tax loss for '98, or keep them in my portfolio for my children to inherit>> Well, it is your money and I don't pretend to be some kind of expert or anything. But, I have seen situations like this before where the news is all bad and looks to continue forever, then in a few months one piece of news is latched on to and everything all of sudden looks better (I can see the headline now: Oil drillers make comeback on better than expected supply/demand numbers). When it comes to forecasts over more than a year you can only look to Micron Technology: In 1995, I think, analysts forecast something like $15 a share in earnings in 1998. Needless to say, it wasn't even close. Long range forecasts are as good as rolling the dice IMHO. Stocks move in short bursts. When the drillers move it will be fast.

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