Yiwu,
For the upcoming days and weeks, my targets for this current move down lie between 1162 and 1143 (Dec futures). If 1162 gives way, which i believe is 50/50, then we'll see a move to around 1143 +/- 2 S&P points. IF 1159 is breached either in tonight's globex session or tomorrow a.m., my plan is to hold out for 1143 to cover my shorts and go mildly long Otherwise, I'll cover all shorts and go long by 10am tomorrow wherever the market is, looking for the final rally in this 5th wave.
This rally should be roughly 35 SPX points in size, so from tomorrow a.m.'s low, I'll be looking for a 35 point rally. But if that rally begins from 1157 or higher, i will expect that rally to terminate at 1192, and expect it to conclude no later than Monday, Dec. 7th, and as early as Thurs, Dec.3rd.
Once this rally concludes, my count says the 5 wave bull move from 8/82 will be completed, and I would have to view any weakness that follows as the beginning of a grandsupercycle correction, the likes of which we may have never seen. I would back off this conclusion if the market exceeds the 1192 target by more than 10 S&P points.
I don't have anything to compare what may be coming to. I can't say for sure whether it will be a neck snapping black hole that sucks the Dow down to 2800 in the first few months, or whether it will be a long, slow, methodical process that grinds the market lower over the next several years. All i know is that if the scenario is correct, and i'm betting heavily that it is, then being long nearly any stock or mutual fund from these levels (1150+) would be a mistake and considered a travesty when we look back at this time a few years down the road. If 1200 SPX is decisively broken, I will cover shorts and go long, looking for an altogether different scenario.
U.S. markets are not the only game in town. The US dollar could be in big trouble with the advent of the Euro, and Rubin would just let it slide to assist our U.S. multinationals and manufacturerers. Holding the U.S. dollar and dollar denominated assets could very well be the worst strategy for the upcoming months/years in the myriad of global opportunities. We've all got alot of homework to do, yes?
Regards,
David |
