The Big Pharma Report: November 1998
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BigKNY3
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Big Pharma Review
-After reaching an all-time high on Friday (86.13), profit-taking took Big Pharma (-2.1%) and the market (-2.3%) down. Every Big Pharma declined.
-During November, Big Pharma gained 4.4% as compared to larger gains for the Dow (+6.1%), S&P (+5.9%) and the Internet crazy NASTie (+10.1%).
-For the month, MRK (+14.9%) was the sector leader based on the Vioxx NDA submission and a declared 2-1 split. Other double digit gains were recorded by LLY (+10.7%) and BMY (+10.6%). Laggards for the month were SBH (-4.4%) and AMGN (-4.2%).
-Reflecting a good response to the 11/6/98 R&D meeting and no reaction to a revision in the Viagra package insert, PFE gained 4.3% for the month.
-YTD, Big Pharma (+41.4%) is clearly outpacing all major general markets (Dow:+15.3%, S&P:19.9% and NASTie: +24.2%). Every Big Pharma is currently over 18.5%.
- In the YTD race, SGP (+71.8%) is once again making a run at WLA (+83.3%).
-PFE (+50.1%) has jumped back into the #3 spot...the same rank as in 1997.
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PFE Analyst Report of the Month
Bear Stearns- November 25, 1998
"The changes FDA made to four key sections of Viagra's label reflect data from real world use. Key additions to the label include warnings about cardiovascular risks, nitrate drug interaction, priapism, and high-risk user profiles, most of which is already in the public domain. Importantly, the FDA continues to state that they perceive Viagra as safe when used as instructed. Further, next month's American Heart Association guidelines on Viagra use will be substantially in-line with the revised label. Prescribing patterns are unlikely to change dramatically as this news is disseminated since awareness levels about Viagra's safety profile are high among medical professionals due to considerable media attention received thus far. We are leaving our Viagra sales estimates unchanged in the face of what we perceive as a non-event, reserving the right to fine-tune our numbers if the situation changes in the future. .....In our view, unrealistic expectations for Viagra are no longer reflected in the stock as most analysts have been lowering their estimates."
PFE Comparative Charts
This Weeks' PFE Price Action versus the Dow.
quicken.com
PFE versus the Dow since the NDA submission for Viagra.
quicken.com
Analysts' Roll-Call
- Broker Ratings Summary
quicken.com
-Norby Broker Reports
nordby.com
PFE Upgrades and Downgrades
biz.yahoo.com
Market Environment Links
-Briefing.com Market Updates
briefing.com
Summary of last Week's Market Action
biz.yahoo.com
-Briefing.com Market Environment
briefing.com
Investment Websites and Databases
CBS MarketWatch: PFE News
cbs.marketwatch.com
Dailystocks PFE Database
dailystocks.com
- Link to free Merrill Lynch Reports (Only registration is required through 2/28/98)
askmerrill.com
Investment Advice
8 easy ways to lose your shirt in stocks
usatoday.com
IBD: 26 Weeks to Investing
ibd.infostreet.com
Big Pharma News Links
Yahoo Link quote.yahoo.com
Motley Fool Link quote.fool.com
Labpuppy Drug Stock Commentary (scroll down the page)
labpuppy.com
ED News Links
Yahoo Link quote.yahoo.com
Motley Fool Link quote.fool.com
AOL Viagra Link
aol://4344:2441.viagra.25954287.585682429
Alt.Support.Impotence
aol://5863:126/alt.support.impotence
Yahoo Viagra Link headlines.yahoo.com
PFE Price History (1987-1998)
Updated: 11/30/98
-Average December PFE growth is +1.5% over the last 6 years.
Yearly Growth (1987-1998)
-PFE has increased for 5 consecutive years
-PFE has increased more than tenfold in the 1990s
Year Ending..... PFE......% Chg .
Date................ Price.....Prior Year....Comments
12/31/87...........5.82......-25.0%....... Bear market/market crash
12/30/88...........7.25.......24.7%
12/29/89........... 8.69......19.9%
12/31/90..........10.10.......16.2%
12/31/91..........21.00.......108.0%.....2-1 split (2/91)
12/31/92..........18.13......-13.7%......Clinton elected president
12/31/93......... 17.25.......-4.8%.......Healthcare reform pending
12/30/94......... 19.32.......12.0%
12/29/95..........31.50.......63.1% ......2-1 split (6/95)
12/30/96..........41.50.......31.7%
12/31/97..........74.56.......79.7% ......2-1 split (6/30/97)
11/30/98......... 111.94......50.1%.......Viagra approved (3/27/98)
Quarter to Quarter Growth
....Quarter........ PFE..... % Chg .
........Date.........Price.....Prior Qt........Comments
1st Qt, 1993......15.75....-13.1%
2nd Qt, 1993......16.75....6.3%
3rd Qt, 1993......14.88....-11.2%
4th Qt, 1993......17.25.....16.0%
1st Qt, 1994......13.50....-21.7%....Healthcare reform pending
2nd Qt, 1994.....15.80.....17.0%
3rd Qt, 1994......17.29.....9.4%
4th Qt, 1994......19.33.....11.8%
1st Qt, 1995......21.44.....10.9%
2nd Qt, 1995......23.06....7.5%....2-1 split (6/95)
3rd Qt, 1995.......26.67.....15.6%
4th Qt, 1995.......31.50.....18.1%
1st Qt, 1996.......33.63..... 6.7%
2nd Qt, 1996......35.67........6.1%
3rd Qt, 1996.......39.56......10.9%
4th Qt, 1996.......41.50........4.9%
1st Qt, 1997.......42.06........1.4%
2nd Qt, 1997......59.88.......42.3%.... 2-1 split (6/30/97)
3rd Qt, 1997.......60.25.........0.6%
4th Qt, 1997.......74.56........23.8%....Trovan approved (12/97)
1st Qt, 1998.......99.88.........33.9%....Viagra approved (3/27/98)
2nd Qt, 1998......108.69..... ..8.8%.......Viagra sales $411M
3rd Qt, 1998.......105.75.......-2.7%
4th Qt, 1998.......111.94.......+5.9%
Monthly and Quarterly Averages (1993-1998)
................Avg % Chg
.................93-98
January ...... 3.4%
February.....-2.8%
March........ 1.8%
April.......... 8.0%
May.......... 3.1%
June......... 2.8%
July.......... -1.1%
August ..... -1.3%
September...4.9%
October..... 8.2%
November....4.7%
December....1.5%
......................Avg % Chg
....................... 93-98
First Quarter........3.0%
Second Quarter..14.7%
Third Quarter........3.8%
Fourth Quarter....12.5% |
