Saturn,
RE:"3) AMD has to recreate the entire CPU motherboard
infrastructure for the K-7 . Brand new processor cartridges,
chipsets and mother boards have to be developed. AMD has no
design expertise or manufacturing capability in these areas.[So
far AMD has ridden Intel's coatails and used the infrastructure
developed by Intel]."
These is my greatest concerns about AMD but it appears that AMD has learned from their prior failure, K5. K-6 was a Nextgen design...the
K7 is an inhouse design BUT AMD brought in a DEC team... (have they learned?)
Processor cartridges shouldn't be that difficult to design and make dies for.
Chipset is a concern. AMD has demoed two. VIA and Ali have announced projects to develop chipsets for the K7. AMD does have some experience
developing chipsets with the AMD640 which was turned over to VIA which turned it into the MPV2 and later MPV3. Still, AMD doesn't have too much chipset manufacturing experience and the Taiwan Chipset makers are used to copying Intels chipsets and that usually takes a couple of revisions.
Motherboards. With close ties to VIA, I'd expect FIC to have a board and Asus has already announced they will make a K7 board. Asus is the premier Taiwan mobo maker. With Ali in the fray expect Aopen to make a board as well. Since Slot A is mechanically compatable with Slot 1, I don't see a problem producing motherboards for the K7.
RE:"So either AMD will have to sell more stock and develop everything internally or depend
upon other partners to build the infrastructure. The safe bet for AMD is to find other partners,
and it appears to be working with Taiwanese chipset designers and motherboard makers."
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And other partners they have found. IBM and Motorola. K7 has been running quite nicely in Motorolas labs for months. As you stated, the mission here is to take the K7 to .18 and copper.
Again, AMD has realized their weaknesses and taken steps to cover them.
RE:"Problems
with the K-7 infrastructure are surfacing already .It is rumored that the first K-7 chipsets have a
L2 with 1/3 processor speed, and the main memory bus will only be capable of 100Mhz .If this is
true K-7 cannot reach its potential."
------
Maybe, maybe not. 1/3 of 600Mhz is 200 MHz last I checked.
At any rate the K7s infrastructure is such that it can be easily improved over time. Getting a release at a lower common denominator is still a release....waiting for full speed will just delay release. Seems AMD has taken the prudent step.
RE:"Over the past 15 years Intel has been an outstanding investment, and I have continued to
expanded my holdings .I do not think that the K-7 will make a significant dent in Intel stock price
in the long run .However there may be short term peturbations caused by AMD's campaign to
gain support for its processor."
----
Can't argue about the first part. We differ about the second part.
As you alluded to, AMD has to EXECUTE a lot of new things in order to bring the K7 to market. History suggests that AMD can't do this but they have taken steps to cover weaknesses. The design team coming from DEC, well versed in getting cpus to run fast, Taiwan chip makers, IBM and Motorola for process technology etc.. Looks good on paper...on paper...
On the other hand, in the short term, until we see some production K7s at least, I don't see much of an effect on Intels stock price...which will be more the slave of general market conditions and the computer market in general. Intel still has no competition in the high end and
the Celeron is holding it's own in the low end. Loss of market share to AMD is is probably a foregone conclusion but the pie gets bigger and Intel is able to hold margins.
Longer term could be a problem but only if AMD can execute. Not really a worry right now but I'll be very leery of holding Intel if AMD somehow executes on the K7...just too early to know...
IMHO, a long term holder of Intel shouldn't be in a hurry to sell it. About March of '99 I'd start to worry a little bit. This would be right after the "proposed" Feb 28 release of the Katmai which should boost the stock.
Jim |
