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Technology Stocks : Stock Swap

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To: Andrew Vance who wrote (15928)12/1/1998 2:08:00 PM
From: Czechsinthemail  Read Replies (1) of 17305
 
AV, Thanks for your thoughts on the Japanese economic situation.

As far as the Japanese economy getting worse, keep in mind that this might be a good thing. This will teach them a valuable lesson and
prevent future occurrences. With that said, their problems are going to be a boon for the US IC producers as well as the European and Taiwanese producers. The hit to the equipment sector may sting for awhile and it might push out my timetable for the recovery, but it might be well worth it.


I'm not convinced that weakness in Japan will translate to strength elsewhere. For one thing, Japan is the most important market for other Asian economies. If the Japanese market continues to contract in a recession, it will shrink the overall market and intensify competition for pieces of a smaller pie. The result is likely to be thinner margins and lower profitability.

AMAT, NVLS and some of the other semi equip companies seem to be taking it in the shorts today while NASDAQ is up significantly. We may be seeing take the money and run time.

Baird
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