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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 139.60-6.2%3:59 PM EST
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To: Math Junkie who wrote (7383)12/1/1998 3:09:00 PM
From: kolo55  Read Replies (1) of 10921
 
Interesting. Two forecast conclusions seem to contradict.

In order to get to flat Semi-equipment sales for 99 over 98, it seems we need an increase in Semiconductor sales. The Semi-equipment sales in early 98 were quite strong, hitting record numbers. I can't see how we get back to record Semi-equipment sales by the end of 99, with no growth in Semiconductor sales.

Certainly we should see much lower Semi-equipment sales in 1999. The question is how much decline should we see? My best guess would be climbing back to the long term trend line of $1100M to $1200M per month, and with most of this climb in the 2nd half of 99. If the average monthly sales next year is $1000M per month, then total sales would be $12B. This should result in at least a 15-20% decline in semi-equipment revenues from the approximately $14.6B we should see this year.

Paul
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