Bill Wexler's Profits of DOOM Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Bill Wexler's Profits of DOOM

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To: Peter V who wrote (3905)	12/2/1998 5:24:00 AM
From: hasbeen101	Read Replies (1) of 4634

A lot of people have gone broke trying to guess the bottom of the oil market since the beginning of the year, good luck. Perhaps you've also heard about the college professor (I forget who) who made a bet with Paul Ehrlich, the famous environmentalist, about whether the price of a whole basket of commodities would be lower or higher after 10 years. The college professor was betting that the prices would be lower, while environmentalists (remember the Club of Rome?) paint the picture that commodities are increasingly rare and will therefore become increasingly expensive. The college professor won easily. Remember the first oil shock in the early seventies when the environmentalists were saying we would run out of oil within 30 years? It's one of the most basic facts of economic history that commodity prices are in a long-run downtrend. I think your observations are right on target. [disclaimer: I am not against environmentalists, in fact I use string bags instead of plastic, conserve energy, and recycle religiously. But the environmentalists are pretty weak at economics].

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