Hi Winston,
Relax, mellow out my friend! Something to calm your nerves. Lets see, you said, " All I am saying is that there is MORE than a natural sell off going on here. Two days in a row market is up size, pc stocks, chip stocks, software stocks are ROARING. TECD down a 1/4, down 3/8....and don't give me the 'patience'"
You ever hear of the Volume Turnover Theory? It's a study that was printed in the Commodities and Stock magazine this past year. It goes as follows:
All stocks will go up and down. Stocks that drop and crossover below their 20-day moving average will remain below that mark UNTIL THEY TRADE AT LEAST the number of the company's total outstanding shares. Some companys can turnover their outstanding shares in a few days, others in weeks, and still other over a few months. Everything is already factored in from the outside forces.
TECD has 7,300,000 outstanding shares (7300 x 1000). Starting the day after the dip below that mark (week ending 12/27/96). Here are the numbers:
Week ending 12/27/96 1,845,700 shares
Week ending 01/03/97 2,459,000 shares
Week ending 01/10/97 4,546,500 shares
Week up to 01/15/97 1,595,700 shares (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
----------------------------------
8,233,800 shares
TECD should start cross backover the 20-day moving average. Very close predictor. In fact, today was the first heavy day of real volume in a long time.
Yes, Winston! You should see an increase back towards the $30.00 range.
Now, had you written some covered call strategies during your wait, you would have been able to capture at least two three options contracts within the expirations with an easy premium return of 4% and 3% each for at the money calls like I did. I use the above formula to time myself offen with pretty good results. Those extra premiums help to average down your stock cost basis.
All investors should learn to use more bull/bear tools. Just waiting for upside appreciation as your only strategy to make a profit will eat the lining of your stomach. Not me!
Hope you start feeling better! Hey, check out Judy! She's owned the company for years. You don't hear her worrying! When you hear her say, "ohhhhhh no!" then I would throw in the towel. Until then, you got to work with your tools and don't concentrate only on the money. |
