Interesting article today Don in the London Financial Times on the impact of the Y2K problem on various sectors of the economy. The following is an interesting tidbit from the discussion.
Any idea what impact Y2K may have on equipment demand/sales in 1999? I can make a case that it will help sales, and also that it will hurt sales - maybe that's the lawyer in me coming out :)
Joe
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. . . . Chip production plants, known as fabs, are especially vulnerable to embedded systems failures.
Chip fabs are among the most complex industrial production systems, costing as much as $ 2bn to build. Tens of thousands of embedded systems control the various stages of chip production, the clean room environment, the safety systems that handle toxic gases and chemicals, the ventilation and heating systems and the telecommunications and network infrastructure.
Gartner Group, the US market research group, predicts that the world-wide chip industry faces potentially serious disruptions due to Y2K. About 90 per cent of equipment used in chip fabs have Y2K problems.
It warns that most chip companies have a "considerable attitude of denial" and have yet to take measures on Y2K.
Sematech, the US research and development consortium, has been warning chip makers that they face a nightmare problem in identifying Y2K bugs in their production systems.
Sematech has listed more than 8,200 production systems that have embedded systems with possible Y2K problems, and so far fewer than 900 fixes for these systems have been made available.
"We have found that newer chip production systems carry a greater risk of Y2K problems because they contain more software," says Harvey Wohlwend, Y2K program manager at Sematech.
"Older production systems don't rely on date fields quite so much."
In terms of finding embedded systems, Mr Wohlwend uses the analogy of replacing light bulbs in a house. The main ones are easy to spot and reach, but there are light bulbs in stereo systems and other electronic equipment in places where you might not expect to find a light.
Such a problem pales in comparison with locating all the embedded systems in today's modern manufacturing plants.
Sematech has asked more than 1,400 suppliers of chip production systems to have solutions available by the end of this year. Mr Wohlwend says that not all suppliers will meet this deadline, and some have told Sematech that they will not be ready until some time next year, a situation he calls unacceptable.
Intel, the world's largest chip manufacturer, says it is well aware of the chip fab problem and is on schedule in fixing potential problems. Texas Instruments says it has analysed all of the systems in use in its fabs and 98 per cent are scheduled to be fixed by June, 1999.
The World Semiconductor Association has formed a working group to come up with a list of proposals for chip producers in Europe, Japan and South Korea. But this effort may be too little and too late to avoid problems.
A key issue facing chip manufacturers is that changing the software in their embedded systems can introduce new bugs requiring rigorous testing. And sharing information between chip makers is difficult, because each fine tunes its own production processes and has closely guarded secrets which it does not want to share with competitors.
"With embedded systems, if you find there is a Y2K problem you need to order a replacement board from the manufacturer," says Ed Yourdon, chairman of the Cutter Consortium, a US IT consultancy, and a leading Y2K expert.
"In many cases, companies are getting delivery dates of mid-1999 because they haven't geared up production to handle that demand."
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