Seagate Technology - Fundamentals Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology - Fundamentals

STX 262.02

+3.4%

Nov 25 3:59 PM EST

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To: Stitch who wrote (242)	12/2/1998 11:56:00 AM
From: Kevin Linder	Read Replies (1) of 1989

Stitch/Gottfried: Trust Stitch to get right to the $64,000 question without beating around the bush. I have to believe and agree with him that there is still too much overcapacity and not enough elements to really return this sector to the nirvana of Drive Allocation. There may be short term spot market shortages such as in the 3/4 Gig drives. I think that more of a temporary glitch. Overall I think we need some consolidation or something to happen to get this market back to more normal. SEG may be the most interesting play because of Luzco. He used to be a finance guy so there is the likelihood that his moves will be well received on the Street. The Veritas deal now looks like a brilliant move. It looks like almost a billion dollar balance sheet gain right now -- tax free. Although Veritas has said analysts projections for 1999 may be too high, that overall sector should experience good growth. I think SEG my be the best play here with their balance sheet, market position and hopefully, more positive surprises by Luzco. If he can time another good surprise we might even get the market to give a new, higher multiple to this company. If that happens and some other industry analysts start some upgrades SEG may be in for a good pop. I remember Michael Murphy, California Stock Technology Letter, last year in OCT/Nov was calling for SEG to hit $53 this last March -- obviously he was wrong. If he and other people start revisiting this sector though we may have some nice quick moves up possibly even to the area where Mr Murphy was talking. And, of course, we could see that this is all a fools dream and we can come crashing down here. I would say I am more cautiously optimistic than I have been for some time. I agree with Gottfried though that new investors should keep a careful watch and a tight stop. Kevin Linder

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