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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology - Fundamentals
STX 262.02+3.4%Nov 25 3:59 PM EST

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To: Kevin Linder who wrote (248)12/2/1998 1:15:00 PM
From: Robert Douglas  Read Replies (4) of 1989
 
Kevin,

Regarding the issue of overcapacity in the disk-drive business. This is certainly a common reason given for the problems plaguing the industry; I myself have mentioned it in several posts. But let me throw out a controversial idea or two and see what happens.

Why should overcapacity matter? Other industries manage to remain profitable with chronic excess capacity. In fact at any given time most industries have some unused capacity. Why should the drive business be such that the only time that the companies can make money is when there are shortages? It is really a ridiculous situation and has puzzled me for years. In other industries when inventories grow, production is rationally curtailed. In the drive business it seems like the various participants wait until the losses are so great that it is a choice between shutting down or going bankrupt. Is this an industry of fools?

Can the HDD industry learn to profitably coexist?I read on one of these threads that Seagate is trying to differentiate its name from other disk-drive “brands”. Could this be the future? Are there other ways that drive makers could differentiate themselves? Service? Long-term contracts with PC makers? Why must competition always be on price? Other industries have found ways, is the HDD business hopeless?

Is there really overcapacity? If there really is overcapacity where is it? In heads, media or some other component? Or is the overcapacity in assembly facilities? If it is the last one, then shouldn't it be easily remedied? After all isn't assembly a highly labor intensive activity that can easily be curtailed? What incentive can there be to assemble a drive that has no buyer? Even my wife is smart enough to stop making waffles when everyone if full, even when there is still batter in the bowl. Should my wife apply for a job as CEO?

-Robert
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