Hey, thoughts huh?--I've watched submicron for a long time, and never owned it until the past few weeks. I would agree with Damien, the long term survival of Subm is a real question, and info is not easy to come by. If anyone knows cash burn rates, quote (for potential orders) activity, need for or availability of additional financing, order info etc I would love to hear it. The reasons I bought and continue to pick up shares are as follows:
1. I'm a big fan of Dave Ferran, he's widely respected in the semi-equipment industry, and I beleive his often stated emphasis on customer satisfaction is exactly what needed to happen at Subm. Mean time before failure rates have improved dramatically during his tenure.
2. Given the volitility of Subm share price lately I have to conclude something is afoot. We have traded as high as .90 and as low as ..16 within the past few weeks. I believe that we're either seeing short covering, or MM accumulation ie. Hold the buy orders, drop the price, and pick up the shares, let them pop, sell,drop the price and on and on. One of the draw backs to being a BB stock is the outrageous price activity based on MM manipulation. However if earnings pick up and we get solid proof of real sales and profits, we're going up. Personally I feel this stock is not only a longer term buy but also a great short term trade, if you're so inclined.
3. Improving book to bill, and increasing order backlogs,
4. Back in May Mr Ferran stated he thought cash flows would turn positive in the 3d or 4th quarters, here we are.
5. Subm is making progress inspite of the SEA problem, some semi company price action as of late has certainly signaled perhaps an easing of SEA impact on the industry (look at ASYT, AMAT, TER and others over the past few months) if Subm can turn the business during one of the worst industry turndowns ever, what can they do if the overall semi bus. begins to turn up?
So there are some thoughts, sorry to be so long winded! |
