I think that if the lease rate has gone up in recent days, and the price of gold has gone down, or neutral, than you can take it as a negative on the gold market. It would suggest that there really very little holding up the market for gold. And that would further be backed by the low open interest. If I remeber correctly; just a little while ago many producers hedgers where unwinding there positions, than maybe the speculators are waiting for those positions to be placed back on soon.
Decisionpoint has to realize that when you are drawing technical patterns on a chart, you should never remove the old ones, but continue to add the news one. If you look at there chart:
decisionpoint.com
And you really need much more indicators than just price. {even I am not including enough of them} Then you might expect that we are getting into a narrowing triangle pattern. Although that may be 1 possible scenario, it is by no means the better one. Gold has not been forming a base as of late, but has been stabilizing on it downtrend from $300 range. {AKA the MACD has reached a top} Speculators know this.
So this is my chart:
mypage.direct.ca
You'll notice that the MACD is in an accelerated downtrend, which gives aid in suggesting the following. To break the downtrend, the XAU will need to break back into the red band, BEFORE any upward trend can be show. Right now, the XAU is trading within a decreasing triangle between the red line, and the horizontal blue line. The blue line represents the resistance level {may be a little to high, but suspect it's at 67.5} Should that be broken than I would expect that many speculators will see that the investment public has no desire to own Gold stocks, and will thus jump onto the futures markets and push. {most futures speculators would've shorted the equities around Nov 1-5) you will notice that the two RED lines form a channel. It is possible to draw a secondary channel from the blue triangle {pennant} downwards, but there truely isn't enough information yet.
Friday is a possible day for the direction to be determined, for the long & short term. Currency volatility should reach an extreme on thursday. {not posted}
decisionpoint.com
which is not draw correctly either, suggest a resistance around 96-97. should that be broken, than gold will collaspse.
No wonder why the futures market seem a little thin? |
