Actually, the four-year cycle begins Oct. 1, so we are already in the most favorable part of the cycle. And as far as speculation goes, all bull markets have it: biotechs in the late '80s and early '90s, internets in '95, networkers from '94-'96, Y2K in '96-'97; I'm sure you could find others. Also, the lack of confirmation by the Transports (so far) indicates little more than a correction, not the beginning of another bear leg down. And the fact that we exceeded the old highs on the double top is bullish, not bearish. And lastly, as long as interest rates stay low and inflation in check, the market can hope that an earnings rebound is "right around the corner," and in such an environment I'm not sure that hope is misplaced; interest rates, not earnings, are the primary drivers of bull markets.
Paul |
