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Technology Stocks : AULT: The unnoticed superstar

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To: shortlong2 who wrote (300)	12/2/1998 3:46:00 PM
From: Clarksterh	Read Replies (1) of 369

Inre Dataquest article: 1) The good news - 130% growth = "The market for cable modems and high-speed cable Internet access stalled slightly in mid-1998, as cable network operators waited for the finalization of the Data Over Cable Service Interface Specification (DOCSIS) standard, and the shipment of standards-based headend and cable modem gear,". I.E. 130% is slow. 2) The bad news - given that Motorola and Bay (only 2 of the 4 main suppliers of cable modems) combined shipped about 250 thousand modems through June, the expected total of 492 thousand implies that cable modem shipments actually slowed (i.e. negative growth) in the second half of 98. See exchange2000.com In actuality I am doubtful of #2 for a variety of reasons. First, it is generally implausible (short of some complete disaster with all of the already installed modems and that would have made the industry news.) Second, to quote from Ault's last Q release Sales of switching power supplies to OEMs of new-generation cable modems generated a substantial portion of the Company's first quarter sales growth. . Third, I am actually starting to see buzz about people with cable modems. Fourth, the Dataquest article implies that no standard exists yet, but this isn't correct - DOCSIS 1.0 is already in use, and I'm sure final-in-all-but-name versions of 1.1 are already available. Dataquest is normally reliable, but I am taking this with a grain of salt until I see some more data. Clark PS Jay - If you were excited about being able to give up your second phone line when you went to cable, DOCSIS 1.1 includes a telephony standard. Within 6 months to a year you may be able to have it all in one (I suspect the legal ramifications will take longer to work out than the technical aspects).

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