SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: yard_man who wrote (34829)12/2/1998 9:20:00 PM
From: bearshark  Read Replies (2) of 94695
 
tippet: Interpreting Dow Theory is quite involved. I am not a strict practitioner of it because I use other analysis.

Under Dow Theory, the various parts of an overall trend take different periods of time to play out. In my opinion, since 1994 the INDU has been in a primary bull market. There has not been a bear market in the INDU. That would be the primary trend which can last for years. The primary trend generally will consist of three phases which relate to either a bull or bear market. These phases will be interrupted by secondary trends or corrections. These secondaries will last from weeks to several months themselves. Then there are minor trends within these that can last for weeks. The periods of time for the primary and secondary trends are considered in Dow Theory.

Now looking at the TRAN, we could have had a primary bear market in it. However, it was very short--less than a year. That can happen but it is not ordinary. Normally they last for over a year. If we conclude that there was no bear market in the TRAN, then that is in a primary bull market going back to around 1994 also. If that is the case, then any reconfimation of the TRAN and INDU at this point would be unimportant because of the age of the primary trend.

In Dow Theory, the numbers 3, 2, and 5 are generally present. You will find these in other theories also--it is human nature.

It all sounds nuts.


Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News