LG,
I will be happy to contribute what I can from time to time. For those that don't know, I am a beginning S&P Futures trader and have been at it for about six months now. I paper traded for quite a while, did well and moved to real money a couple months back. Right now I am only short term trading -- meaning trades lasting no longer than a couple hours, most of the time a lot less. I am getting better at defining and determining short term moves during the day sessions. I would love to be able to positional trade it and leave it on for several days, if not weeks, but don't yet have the confidence or the indicators to do so.
Most of the stuff I have is compiled from other thread contributors and I take it and adapt it to what works for me. My basic methodology has not been abandoned, but now is used more for confirmation of trend during a trade than for entries and exits. The basic methodology was adapted from ideas from several SI particpants and I put the indicators together and put my own spin on it. Currently I am using MACD and TICK divergences more so for entries and exits are still somewhat up in the air, but I am trying to develop a better exit strategy.
There are a great number of great SPOO traders on the threads. At this point I would not even pretend to put myself in their category of SPOO trader. Many participate on the Systems and Strategies for Trading Futures thread. Patrick Slevin is one of the best I have run across due to his experience and his past knowledge. He has an uncanny ability to digest what is happening in the market at any given moment and understand what it means for the direction of the SPOOS before confirming signs are seen in any of the indicators.
I am using some of Ground Zero's stuff to try to develop a longer term positional system. One of the things he has taught us is the Andrew's Pitchfork method of determining support and resistance points. I believe there is a lot more for me to learn about that method, but I have the very basics down.
Without going into a lot of detail on these methods at this time I see support on the SPOOS at 1155-1157 and rising. If that level does not hold, the next level would be the upper 30's to low 40's. These points are determined off of short term forks and are not 100% reliable nor are the forks necessarily tested yet and therefore maybe they are not active as I understand the methodology.
The longer term fork can be seen on this chart, courtesy of Frank Skepton. The longer term fork has been tested and as you can see on the chart the upside tine of the fork held this latest rally at the new highs in late November.
geocities.com
Current upside forks are at 1190 and 1200 or so.
My bias, so you know, for now is down. I try not to let that color my thoughts, but it will nonetheless. I don't see any sense to the current valuations and think this thing is way overdone. As always, I can and probably will be proven wrong and so be it. I expect more downside and think the highs are in.
Right now Globex SPOOS are down 12.50 points which translates roughly to 100 DOW points. It will be interesting to see in the morning where the SPOOS end up in the night session. Currently I am flat even though my bias is lower. Too bad.
-Scott |
