Investment in Russia and Eastern Europe Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Investment in Russia and Eastern Europe

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To: jbe who wrote (855)	12/2/1998 11:15:00 PM
From: Rob Shilling	Read Replies (2) of 1301

Y2K ??? Russia is a hedge against it !!! The nuclear reactors have already been deemed safe because they are analog. The older technology in much of Russia will help too. How about a run on banks ?? Don't have to worry, the people that had money in banks have already either lost their money or have pulled it out. The rest of the money is in mattresses. Russia is also a good hedge against higher oil prices through war (IRAQ) or OPEC strategy. Speaking of oil, there was a 5.7 million barrel drawdown in the U.S. last week, yet the spin is still negative. Basicially, IMHO oil is down just to help Exxon and Mobil merge (it would never happen with higher oil prices because consumers would complain). It looks like the IMF will start giving money in January. The 1999 budget should be passed before that. So, after January the only thing left to wait on is higher oil prices and the recovery will be on the way for Russia. I predict August 1999 will show the first year over year GDP increase for Russia. Also, after the IMF money comes through and oil prices go back to the mid-teens, the ruble could strengthen to around 12 IMHO.

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