Hi Robert; Timing it way out can't be done, if any one gets it right
it's by luck. I too look for some big disappointments on the
internuts but they will likely run longer than I would think,
as that seems to be the case already.
---------------
I'v been tracking new internet signons in our AREA, ALSO I keep one eye on the amount of post going to SI , while the sign ons are still
going up, ( the rate is nothing like it was ) , every thing in
the internuts is priced via the growth rate, but there is a gap
of time they don't cover. While the rate is good, it's not as
fast as it was. The growth rate peaked several months ago,
but they don't seem to recognize tath. It could be some time before
they do, and I don't expect them to talk about when they
figure it out. Much of the new traffic is commercial and like
more band width going to large graphics, video streaming and such
and tons of ( spam mail ) along with advertisements..
But the real growth rate is "people coming on line", and
that is what is slowing It takes people to make all that
other stuff work, or worth while and they have over estimated
the rate people are coming on line, because they projected
froward the big surge, as if it would surge and surge and
surge..well it's not doing it. Even AOL has only got to 14m
and that's with picking up Compuserve..well a year ago they
were at 10m and gainging 2m every 3 months,,so what happened. ?
-------------
One thing that may help make a soft landing is the cheap oil,
so the jury is still out , the price of oil can take some
time to work it's way up the food chain, to were it helps
growth in all areas. Cheap oil is as good as interest rate
cuts if not better. ( not for the drillers but for others it can
be a life saver. )
----------------------
Jim
|
