SOXX needs to take out 330 otherwise a break on 330 will take it back to 302 area even lower, so you need to look at it closely. BKX it is only above 815 that I will call it a buy for new entrants I would like the old high of NDX also to be taken out that was 1632 or 1628 we can of see some reluctance on part of NDX to stay up here although resilience down below is equally good it did bounce off 1598 and 1535 in last few sessions that volatility itself is reflective of bull bear action being ferociously fought at this level, for traders one needs to be lightened and one needs to trade the breaks whichever side they may come- on the up we need those two closes above 2000 to justify this move for the down I think SPZ 1155 is a critical support although we have seen 1151 bounce but the market looks like going to
1505 on NDX, these gaps do fill if we close above 2000 and 1632 twice we may go higher to 1750 level but I am not convinced that that will be a sustainable move.. I have looked at this market purely from economic growth point of view this is now third month in a row that I am seeing weaker economic number and since last few days I am highlighting it for me I will rather err on the side of caution and wait until 330 is comprehensively taken if that happens we go higher to levels in SOX we had see in times when SOX broke loose, I see no resistance between 334 to 370 are and as such would expect this technology led rally to continue however looking at the markets internals and looking at global indicators I would like to think we go lower first test the supports and move higher, I will also like to draw your attention from NDX move 1450 on 2nd Nov to Dec 2nd 1628- this is a good move and discounts a lot of good news, mergers of nessecity like Mobil and Exxon will cause concern -- I would like the cue from this leading indexes if leading indexes keep attracting money we may see market moving forward but lagging RUT and lagging DOW needs to be carefully looked at, on transportation I take your point we always thought if this DOW needs to move higher we need transportation get going these BKX and Transports are holding well but this range bound market will keep showing jittery action and one needs to trade the levels between 1130 and 1180 on SPZ we have 50 point room where market will certainly move, I wish I could see some strong economic numbers to negate this feeling SOX alone will not able to sustain this broad move-- at certain point these stocks will become too overvalued too soon I would like to see my upper levels comprehensively taken out I would rather wait than jump in- I am seeing NDX down quite a bit on Globex I think that 1594 level may again be tested and probably breached-- I will keep trading and making some small trades with help of indexes SOX out of all of of theirs has very good prognosis if it takes out 330- others I am not so sure let these levels be decisively taken out we may become part of the market but right now it is good to be watching with little on stake from the side lines- for a person like me market action is important every day but so is my feel I just don't feel right and NAPM 46 will not let me feel better until I see unemployment at 4.3%-- I will not be elated with this weak economy numbers as I am a believer in the new paradigm of economy I think we may see non-inflationary growth but if growth stalls we have no inflation I have serious trouble with that premises, my trouble is just not US I see things globally- the interest rates cut next time will be out of necessity and this not something I am at all happy with from liquidity crunch to slow down cuts will be little tricky I am also seeing sterling against $ very well bid this is an early indicator of little concerns also Swiss and TB's are bid so we need a good unemployment number to stave off the unsaid concerns, it may not be before Feb that NAPM starts picking up as a result of these rate cuts and demand pick up so if we keep getting some weaker numbers market flirtation with cuts being on cards will soon end, such is the reality and such is the fact we need to keep in mind before committing new funds- mine are new as they have just gotten out they can rather wait for few days when I may get things cheaper- if the market leaves me I will go with it for last few gasps with some leverages indexes I have few and will continue to add few..
For me strong economy is strong corporate profits weak economy may stall the possibility of that big double digit growth- with BA warnings I would be very cautious my levels are 1155 if it breaks we go to as low as 1130 and test that several times on NDX 1505 is like a magnet calling the market towards it but if SOX breaks 330 we move to 1670 on NDX-- so Tech led rallies is my bet if SOX breaks I will be out of industrials an into Tech and the most haggard and disheveled they are the better.. the resistance above 330 is so minimal and big money may channel money out of industrials into Tech's sans internets ..gg I hope to see good strong numbers emanatong so as to be that original carefree bull.. it saddens me to talk like this...ggg
I am little busy shifting in a new house with a little better view of Paris it was 180 degree now 270 degree and hence little less available for few days but I hope every one has a good merry holiday season, Dec is always great.. |
