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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 670.92

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Nov 7 4:00 PM EST

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To: Ditchdigger who wrote (82)	12/3/1998 8:25:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (1) of 99985

DD, >>Anyone notice in the last 3 days, German DAX -9%,French CAC -8%, and the UK FTSE -6%... The European markets were far off their July highs at the recent top. They look like they've completed a bear market rally, and the 3 days sell off from the top does support this analysis. The unexpected rate cut this morning should support only a brief pull back of 1-2 days that will probably retrace only half the recent drop. >>US markets shouldn't be diverging so drastically from other major European markets(and Asian)-we are not isolated. AG said that, too. But then again, a spread between Europe (short) and large cap US technology stocks (namely- the NDX index) (long), was very profitable so far. >>Brazil having big problems The Bovespa is starting down on the 3rd leg down. After peaking in April, this market (like the Russell 2000) made only a mid term top in July, on a L.T. down trend. >>What are the fundamental reasons our markets should go higher None. But that was true since 7/97. Look over the Big Picture thread for the trickle of fundamental discussion. Mostly super bearish. If you're not familiar with my L.T. opinion - I'm a mega bear and kept the same L.T. views since Dow 8000 in 7/97. IMO it's the greatest equity bubble of the last 230 years. ATG

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