Thread, another article on the human costs of the crisis in Asia:
nytimes.com
Note that this is from the ILO, so it presents the other view, so to speak. The article makes a very telling point. In most of the Asian economies, there is very little or nothing in the way of even a small modicum of social security umbrella.
This, and the suddenness and speed with which material misfortune has befallen millions of Asians, have resulted in a mindset of dashed expectations and hopes that is going to take years to recover psychologically. As in any large scale social upheaval, I fear there will be an entire generation of disenfranchised former Asian middle class who are now steadily descending toward poverty. Many of these will not have a clue as to how to slug their way out, or simply no longer have the will and determination.
Much of what the ILO report is corroborated by feedback from my contacts, friends and relatives in the region. They paint the usual expected story : street crimes on the increase, massive unemployment, prostitution on the rise, etc. If the crisis is prolonged, there is a real danger that some nationalist charismatic crackpot will emerge, and the masses will flock to him/her. History has a habit of repeating itself. The rise of communism in Russia and China was possible because of the widespread suffering of the masses in those countries, likewise the rise of Nazism in Germany was possible because of widespread depression and wounded national pride.
Yesterday I read another report where the World Bank sharply criticised the early IMF policies. Today's co-ordinated move by 10 central banks in Europe to cut interest rates is a hopeful sign that governments appreciate the seriousness of the underlying problems and what potentially may be at stake.
Best,
Steve Yeo
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