Steve,
(1)In the next 5 years, China is expected to consume 15 million units of VCD, SuperVCD and DVD players.
(2)At least for the next 2 to three years, the cost advantage of VCD and SVCD will make DVD very difficult to compete.
(3)But after the key component prices go down, DVD "might" have a chance, declared a market analyst.
(4)AFter three to four years later, the DVD "may" reach 10 million unit per year.
Also "...one of C-Cube's chief rivals in China, digital video chip vendor ESS
Technology (Fremont, Calif.), is also trying to help manufacturers ease the
transition from SVCD to DVD production. Its ESS 4408 solution aims to
provide audio functions like 5.1-channel sound and karaoke via software.
The 4408 integrates 32-bit RISC video and a 64-bit DSP, allowing
developers to use high-end C language programming to develop DVD
functions. ESS' programmable multimedia processor also allows OEMs to
offer other capabilities through DVD players, including video telephones and
teleconferencing...."
It is very refreshing to notice that the actual market in China proves that ESST strategy
is sound and correct. Let's see some profits NOW for 4Q, 1998.
Rishi
*********
China gov't invests in DVD infrastructure
By Sunray Liu
with contribution from George Leopold
EE Times
(12/03/98, 4:20 p.m. EDT)
BEIJING ¡X China is stepping up efforts to kick start a domestic DVD
(digital video disk) industry, investing in such key technologies as laser diodes
for optical heads, MPEG-2 decoder development and the improvement of
DVD manufacturing capabilities, in the hopes of building demand among
consumers for the emerging but so far expensive technology.
In anticipation of the new market that the Chinese government's investment
in DVD technology will open, such foreign companies as C-Cube
Microsytems, ESS Technology, STMicroelectronics, Panasonic and LSI
Logic Corp. are offering their own single-chip DVD solutions to Chinese
OEMs.
Manufacturers and industry analysts gathered here last month for a
government-sponsored symposium predicted Chinese consumers will buy 15
million video CD (VCD), super video CD (SVCD) and DVD players in each
of the next five years. Demand for DVD players is expected to take off
next year, with as many as 10 million players sold annually beginning three to
four years from now.
Peng Fu, chief analyst for market researchers Advanced
Forecasting-HuiCong (Cupertino, Calif.), said relatively cheap video CDs
and VCD players will make it tough for DVD manufacturers to crack the
Chinese market. "At least for the next two years, the DVD market in China
will not grow so fast," Peng said. "After two or three years, maybe the
[DVD] market will be better."
The China State Press and Publication Administration "is supporting the new
products in electronic publishing," said Mao Xiaomao of the Administration's
Department of A/V and Electronic Publishing. "We approved the importing
of seven DVD manufacturing lines and a mother disk [production] line."
Despite progress on several fronts, the nascent Chinese DVD software
industry faces other barriers. The biggest is the lack of national DVD
standards to support the software industry. Another is the lack of
high-quality titles that can drive demand for DVDs. As things stand, most
domestic films must be reproduced to improve their audio to international
standards like 5.1-channel sound.
The Chinese government is pumping funds into research on key technologies
in the hopes of seeding a home-grown DVD capability. Supported by the
government, the Semiconductor Institute of the Chinese Academy of
Science has developed a new 650-nm red lightwave laser diode. The laser's
power, optical and temperature characteristics appeared promising in tests in
which it was used as an optical head. Researchers at Tsinghwa University
are developing other parts of the optical head, including work on a lens,
actuator and other components.
Feng Jichun, vice director at the High-Technology Development and
Industrialization ministry, called the laser-diode work a "breakthrough of key
technologies," adding that the focus now is on volume production. "Our
scientists and engineers are paying more attention to the innovation of
technologies that will help our enterprises release the pressure of [intellectual
property rights]," Feng said.
Elsewhere, fabless design houses like the state-sponsored China IC Design
Center and other domestic chip makers are focusing on developing MPEG-2
decoders. VCD player makers are also investing in similar video technology.
Some are working independently, while others are cooperating with U.S.
partners.
300 titles so far
As the number of DVD titles in the Chinese market grows to about 300, so
does the list of foreign companies announcing single-chip DVD solutions.
Among the first was C-Cube Microsystems (Milpitas, Calif.). C-Cube
announced it will supply fully tested chip sets that will enable DVD
manufacturers here to quickly incorporate them into their players. The
company also said it will help Chinese OEMs produce DVD cameras based
on its DVD-RW technology.
One of C-Cube's chief rivals in China, digital video chip vendor ESS
Technology (Fremont, Calif.), is also trying to help manufacturers ease the
transition from SVCD to DVD production. Its ESS 4408 solution aims to
provide audio functions like 5.1-channel sound and karaoke via software.
The 4408 integrates 32-bit RISC video and a 64-bit DSP, allowing
developers to use high-end C language programming to develop DVD
functions. ESS' programmable multimedia processor also allows OEMs to
offer other capabilities through DVD players, including video telephones and
teleconferencing.
France's STMicroelectronics and Japan's Panasonic have also jumped into
the Chinese DVD market, promoting themselves as one of the few IC
makers offering manufacturers a complete line of DVD design solutions.
STM announced a low-cost DVD-on-a-chip based on a 32-bit RISC
processor. Meanwhile, Panasonic's solution includes the necessary chip sets
and a kit that were originally released in Japan. Panasonic's DVD chip sets
are now attracting Chinese partners through its joint ventures here as well as
through its national support network.
LSI Logic Corp. (Milpitas, Calif.), which set up a facility in Beijing, has
announced design wins for its DVD decoder chip, and expects to announce
more before the Consumer Electronics Show in January. LSI's Hong
Kong-based partner has also developed DVD solutions for the Chinese
industry that are expected to help China meet its goal of producing 1 million
DVD players next year.
Meanwhile, the state-run Xinhua Bookstore, China's largest, said it would
use its chain of stores to form a network for renting DVD titles.
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