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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 677.58+0.3%Nov 5 4:00 PM EST
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To: HairBall who wrote (1)12/3/1998 6:50:00 PM
From: bobby beara  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
beara's MDA for LG's kids.

points to ponder

1. 4/8 year cycles bottom rallies are always met with skepticism from the press, public and financial media, not historic bullishness and calls for dow 10,000. Need a wall of worry to climb, apparently we have climbed the wall.

2. teepee formed on Dow while speculative nasdaq pulled in buyers who missed the rally to buy the last dip.

3. Breadth was strong into 11/6 creating an environment for analysts to call a plurality breadth advance off a 4/8 year oversold bottom, the breadth has a major divergence from that peak - 200+ on the Mcoscillator to the breadth peak of 11/6 to 50 on 11/23. Checking thru former cycle bottoms I did not find this kind of divergence.

4. Echo indicator as posted to Sew on Saturday perfect. Rampant speculation in junk internets have called the top.

5. The bull case for a new bull market necessitates a run to new highs a retest of the neckline or base on light volume and an ensuing rally. While we had this case in the speculative tech, drug, biotech and a few others the broader market has reversed off a double top formation on above avg. volume.

6. On this decline put/call ratios remain in bearish territory as they did during the first month off the 7/20 top showing complacency.

bb
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