Can set-tops live up to the
hype?
By Stephanie Miles
Staff Writer, CNET News.com
December 3, 1998, 4:00 p.m. PT
update Much hype has been bestowed upon the
television set-top box as provider of interactive
computer-like services, but with the upcoming roll-out of
Scientific-Atlanta's cable TV set-top box, the technology
finally must prove its worth to consumers.
Scientific-Atlanta's Explorer 2000 cable set-top box offers many
of the features industry watchers say are integral to the
platform's acceptance: email, movies-on-demand, and
high-speed Web access through a cable modem and Ethernet
technology.
But there are still some basic infrastructure issues that must
be addressed before consumers can take full advantage of
Explorer 2000 and other products like it.
First, a quick look at what advanced cable TV set-top box
suppliers are touting:
Email and Web browsing: surf the Internet or send and receive
email at high cable modem speeds, many times that of the
fastest dial-up modem. No waiting for dial up or connections,
always connected.
Movies on demand: obviates the need to make a trip to a video
rental store. Select from a library of movies and request to see
them "on demand."
E-commerce: Set-top boxes (such as Scientific-Atlanta's) have
a public/private key security system to allow secure home
shopping. And it comes with a smart card slot so users will be
able to insert a debit card to pay directly for purchases over
their TV. Also, a smart card can be used to transfer electronic
cash from their bank account onto the card.
Cable modem: set-tops come with an Ethernet connection
"port" and integrate a high-speed cable modem. Supports hook
up to a consumer's PC and can function as a stand-alone cable
modem. Can use the set-top on both the TV and PC.
Hundreds of digital channels: high-resolution images and
high-quality digital music--and interactive games.
But this will not be automatic. Rather, it will be decided by the
local cable company--not the set-top box maker. "The cable
operators sit on their imperial thrones, and they decide what's
going to be offered to subscribers," said Seamus McAteer, an
analyst at Jupiter Communications, predicting that few cable
service operators will opt to provide costly services like email
and full Internet access.
"Who pays for the boxes in people's homes? The cable
operator. How much they want to offer, depends on how much
they want to pay."
Scientific Atlanta says services are generally rolled out
gradually. "Most cable operators follow digital video services
with email, then web browsing capabilities, and finally
video-on-demand" which is the high revenue-generating killer
applications, according to a Scientific Atlanta spokesperson.
The cable box supplier also extols the fungibility of the device,
saying that set-top boxes like the Explorer 2000 can be used
as a cable modem for PCs. This draws skepticism from
McAteer however.
"There is a pent-up demand for [high-speed] Internet access
among PC owners, but TV viewers who don't have a PC are
really not that interested," he said. "And do you really want to
string a line from your PC to your set-top, which are usually in
different rooms? Probably not."
Improved programming guides may drive browsing
Still, these devices are at an advantage since they are being
deployed by cable providers who possess a distribution channel
already accepted by consumers, according to Forrester
Research. News, sports, and talk shows will gain "lazy
interactivity," the report says.
This interactivity will be accompanied by more advanced
electronic TV program guides. "As cable's channel choices
expand and [channel] surfing becomes unwieldy, viewers
will demand more sophisticated guides from cable
operators," the Forrester study says. The report cites
advanced electronic TV programming guides that quickly
sort through hundreds of channels.
Movies-on-demand is the next feature most likely to
succeed, McAteer says, because it is a service that
television viewers have already demonstrated a demand
for.
"You're going to see a lot more video programming in
this new stream," he said.
Despite all these tantalizing features, it is unclear how
many people nationwide will have access to set-top
boxes like Explorer 2000 in the next year,
notwithstanding Scientific Atlanta's announcement today
that cable subscribers in Buffalo, New York, and
Glendale, California, are accessing SA's digital cable
services. The bottom line: Service with all the bells and
whistles could be very patchy for a few years yet.
Although 14 cable operators have made "commitments"
to Scientific Atlanta's digital network service,
representing approximately 16 million subscribers, it is
unknown at this point what services will be offered, and
in what time frame.
The need for speed
Moreover, to realize the full potential of cable set-top
boxes for Internet use, two-way high-speed connections
are essential. But many cable providers across the
country are still upgrading their networks to provide such
two-way services. Services that are not two-way provide
a slow dial-up connection for sending data, because a
separate phone line connection is required.
Thus, few cable operators are expected to offer services
for the full spectrum of hardware features Explorer 2000
supports.
Finally, the promise of high-resolution digital
programming is at least a few years off because the
infrastructure for high-definition TV is just beginning to be
built. |
