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Politics : Idea Of The Day
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To: Mark Fowler who wrote (21739)12/4/1998 6:11:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF  Read Replies (2) of 50167
 
I just noticed markets on globex rebounding decently making a SOX second close above 330 a good possibility.. The employment number will help if it shows continued strngth always seasonally it is a good number..

In my opinion good productivity puts to rest the possible worries of 'dirty hydra headed inflation' creeping up as .75% cuts have an impact on economic growth. That is good alongwith low inflation, lower rates, and better controlled demand of US budgetary needs all these factors gives one a good vision going forward. It is the financial asset valuations and the global bond market divergences which are cause of irritation right now, Brazil problem keeps coming back making a bad impact on BKX like we saw yesterday another haircut of 10% will bring BKX to 710 support and will hurt the US markets a lot.It is these kind of gyrations we are interested to chart and forecast about.. and in this contest our radar has to be sensitive topick minor signals or turning points..

Now our job is slightly more tricky on this thread we need to write every day and time the market this is a thankless job on one hand on the other a very rewarding if you get it right sans emotion.. I will think we have with continued numbers like this a good possibility that the 5 years money which is lower than short term funds creep back up as rates can be cut at nearer end don't forget that we will soon have the benefit of reporting inflation better it is estimated that inflation figures now available are already reported a full percent higher.. This drop in inflation will further reduce the liabilities of US government if capital gains taxes are reduced further and income tax rates on corporate levels are further reduced and government decides to get out of the way spending public surpluses there is no reason that supply side miracle may continue for quite some time. I was quoting that 70% of public in US according to a survey believes that we have not yet seen the bottom of economic problems, I would like to see some evidence before making such a sweeping conclusion. On markets I have a view that markets need to back and fill I have this 20 days averages and I am following NDX with greatest interest for the worst retracement I would imagine that NDX which touched intra-day low of 1050 to intra-day high of 1642 in between 8th Oct to 3rd Dec I have all the reasons going by past experience to believe that market built on so much of positive expectations going forward can easily retrace to 1505 and even to 1390 or 1410 levels- where it will be a great buy- this opportunity will come and will come within 90 days the choice is out own we can keep going long with higher risk reward or keep our long side outlays minimum and waiting for that drop to levels I think are inevitable- for me right now my outside objectives are determined my short term trades are to trade above 1600 on long side and take my cue from SOX if tech. go forward we have solid move ahead if tech fail we will see 1505 and we can have a good possibility of a good trade on long side their, I am looking at SOX INTC CSCO and MSFT action with interest these stocks need to get going otherwise SOX run to 370 becomes suspect too... TXN NOVLS XLNX ALTR alone cannot take the burden of this huge market- if 175 on AMZN is taken out we will see 1505 will also be lost on way down. So for me I am into long side with greatest selectivity and saving my powder to use if and when opportunity rises, I am ready to be patient but index trading accords greatest possible leverage and some time you may all cash but in valuation terms can construct a trade where you can take advantage of upside move atleast 60%.. so right now I remain a cautious bull on SOX I will recommend long side trades above 336 and cover at 330...
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