Tend to agree
Althought we all want to see 10 servers a month being shipped soon, at $500K/system, that simply isn't going to happen for a while, possible a long while. The "TRUE" trials, with real customers, real high load interactivity, real in-street/in-house crappy wiring, and real complaints, uncover many quirky problems and some are technically very tough to diagnose, let alone solve. I PERSONALLY have experienced this with the SARNOFF machine, and don't expect any other players to have any easier of a time with it. A matter of fact, it is highly likely that the Full Service idea of mixing straight Digital video, IVOD, Cable Modems, web-TV, telephony, ect ... over the same pair of wires and muxed through the same system will be significantly more troublesome in practice than the IVOD-only Service DIVA had to get working, which took 2 full years once installed at a real head-end running a mere 1000 streams. The reprogramming, regression testing, and hardware/software reinstall still is ahead of us. CCUR may see some real deployment delays and real large unbounded expenses in 99-00 in working these issues on the several parallel fronts (multiple USA residential,multiple Foreign residential, hospitality, and multiple intranet). The more customers they add, the higher the risk of any of them being adequately addressed from a technical point of view. Engineers who have the thing working great in the lab, or at a show, get burned out real fast when they realize a major rewrite of code or redesign of some hardware is needed to achieve an integrated and bullet-proof system.
With continued declining revenue in the coming quarters, the stock price likely will follow. If you believe in the CCUR story, continue to accumulate.
I don't know about others here, but the recent "progress" (news) did not bolster the stock nearly as much as one would have expected. Wall Street knows significant earnings growth from CCUR is still a ways off, possibly 6-8 quarters. |
