Patrick; I see it, and I've been driving at the same point with out
much success. At the recent peak of our market off the lows
about 10% was due to a falling dollar, right now about 7%.
All the rhetoric about how a weaker dollar helps, is smoke and
mirrors, as in the long run it's a catch 22, we get a short term
benefit and can clear out inventories, but we will still wind up
& import more than we sell, ( chips and Tvs and Shoes and so much
else comes from Asia , and all that will cost more. ) It's a
sword with a double edge, and the one that cuts us is sharper than
the other side.
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If we look at the market from a global view, then it's 7% lower
than we see it relative to it's August Low, as that's when the
dollar started it's dive.
Another thing that seems to be a catch 22 is after the dollar falls,
any gain back in it is hard on the stock market, as foreigners who
buy a lot of our Blue chips ( and still see us in a bear market )
will try to exit when the dollar goes up.
The road back is much more arduous than it looks if your only
looking at stocks related to dollars..when you add a dollar index
to the mix and understand that we have a global market the picture
is not as rosy.
Jim |
