I think several things will effect it, reversals in the dollar if
strong, with the market now moving the inverse of the dollar,
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The Fed adding liquid helps, and they are under pressure to keep
the market up (at home) as to limit last minute tax loss selling.
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The longer term TA is for more downside , ( particularly if we
look at it from a global view ) ..I prefer to trade when both
the long and short term TA have the same direction.
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In one way I got it right with the buy recommendation around the
1st of Sept..but had I seen the full picture I would have said
Buy Japan,,the real gains have been there, and opposed to the
garbage the pundits put out. With the run up in the Yen, it
makes their "stocks" worth a lot more dollars, while the pundits
just focus people on the Nikkie225, we need to remember that's
in YEN a good thing to watch is the webs while they may not
track exactly in line they do take into account currency
moves..compare them to the SPY..95 to 117.25 = gain 23.4%
EWJ 7.685 to 10.25 = 33.3% gain..
So japan has beat us by 10% , since the bottom and if all things
were equal on the currency front..our real gain off the bottom
is only 13% not a lot;; considering we had a 20% fall, & that takes
25% up to make up, so in global terms we have got back about
half our loss.
We are still in a bear market if you use "global" dollars instead
of greenbacks. While this may take time to come home and bite
us on the ass, it will.
I warned people last year to watch out if the dollar fell,
as there are many forces in the market that do not wish us well.
Normally I'm an old buy the dips person, and tend to be more
bullish than bearish..but not now.
Jim
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