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To: BeachBum who wrote (4804)	12/4/1998 2:29:00 PM
From: David Colvin	Read Replies (1) of 10072

There was a rumor during COMDEX that Sony was going to ship Hifd on 12/7 (interesting date ! ). What do you think will be the short term impact on the stock. Apparently, they have already shipped because a regular poster who goes by the screen name of NovW on the AOL Motley Fool Iomega thread bought one at a retail store and is running tests on it as we speak. Furthermore the access time is 49 ms whereas the access time of the zip drive is 29 ms. So much for the vaunted Sony HiFD drive being faster than the zip drive. IMHO, the impact to Iomega stock (if any) will be purely psychological in nature as shipment of the Sony drive has been "threatened" since early this year, and the market's senses have probably been dulled to this prolonged threat. As far as I'm concerned, some kind of "surprise" announcement from some competitor could have a far more dramatic effect. I'll never forget back in June of 1996 when the mere announcement of the Imation LS-120 caused Iomega stock to plummet $10.00 in one day. Now we know it's no big deal. With only 2-3 million of these "slow as molasses" clunky drives sold I'm certainly not worried about them overcoming the popularity of zip drives with 20 million now shipped. Syquest is bankrupt. Avatar (makers of the shark drive) is bankrupt. BTW, this little drive was really neat and was the only one that I ever thought could give the zip drive a run for it's money....scared me. IMHO, the Sony HiFD drive will never overcome the momentum of zip drive sales and have to be more expensive to manufacture because of two different drive mechanisms. Just too little too late...crowing about backward compatability with a 3.5" floppy disk drive that was introduced in the early 1980's and is now virtually useless. Let Sony and Imation fight for the "other" 10% of the market and cannablize each other, much like the competitors to Intel. IMHO, we will see the day when over 50% of all computers will ship with only one "floppy" drive in it....the zip drive! When that happens, the profits for Iomega will start to become staggering because of shear volume. We'll see if I'm right in about two more years. Dave

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