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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU)

LU 2.695

+1.3%

1:11 PM EST

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To: George the Greek who wrote (5098)	12/4/1998 9:56:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) of 21876

George it was the way LU acted during the last several days. Narrow range to down not moving over $90 and then sudden an explosion on no news of 10% at a time that other in the group were flat or slightly up.(except NOK.A on their cellular issue) LU is the most overvalued (twice the P/E) in the group an does not surpass in technology the other companies. In comparison to NT, LU their nearest competitor in the Americas they share the market more or less. There was a big win in Mexico for NT and LU won in Brazil, and today NT won also in Brazil $150 mill. As for China this is pure PR and BS to push the stock. The Germans, Japan and France are there to, and more important in Eastern Europe and Russia. China and India or SE Asia for this purpose will not let LU or anyone else in in a big way. China is manufacturing (assembling its own equipment the bulk of it, as are most of those nations) LU's Chairman is a salesman and now he is all wrapped up to sell LU stock and not it's equipment as are doing all the internuts. If you noticed LU is "MANAGING ITS EARNINGS" in other words they cook the books. LU needs a high stock price for the simple reason to buy other expensive companies such as ASND for example. WS runs up the stock hoping to get the M&A fees which are on average 2.5% of the transaction. ... and the list goes on ...... From a trading point of view LU is a "pair" trade for many hedge funds and therefore so volatile. They do not need to short the stock as they can short volatility trough a WS house and long lower P/E telecom manufacturers to market neutral. If you remember LU fell from around 79 to 54 in October also for "no reason" now we know it was hedge funds unwinding due to NT pre-announcement and other similar pair trade and margin calls. I was long then at 75 and only by placing a stop saved my day. <gggg> IN any case LU is fairly valued at $50 to $55, but so is AMZN at $20 or better $12 <GG> Long story to simple answer.<GG> BWDIK Haim

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