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Technology Stocks : INTS - Integrated Systems
INTS 0.415+2.8%1:54 PM EST

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To: John B. Dillon who wrote (200)12/4/1998 11:08:00 PM
From: Alan A. Hicks  Read Replies (4) of 327
 
Everen Securities Analyst Richard put out a very comprehensive 28 page report on ISI and the embedded industry dated November 14.

A few Highlights from the report:

INTS shares trade at a 43% percent discount to the S&P 500 and 57% discount to its peer group. Piotrowski believes the uncertainties of the current CEO search justifies a 20% valuation discount which provides $13.5 per share target over the short term (0-6 months). Piotrowski sees a longer term (6-18 months) price target of $18.5 assuming a multiple equal to the S&P 500. He has a short-term "Market Performer" rating and a long-term "Outperformer" rating.

Because of the lack of a permanent CEO "The issue of strategic direction and focus remains unresolved. However this can change quickly if a new CEO is appointed soon." Piotrowski noted "Eventually a new CEO will be appointed" and ... that ISI's "customer base is excellent, the tools are good and the opportunities are significant." In the report Piotrowski also noted that ISI "has not lost any significant customers to competitors."

Piotrowski sees the embedded systems market as an emerging opportunity with the industry at an inflection point with microcontroller prices declining rapidly and time to market pressures absolutely critical. The pace of innovation in the embedded market is quickening while "Engineering talent is scarce and becoming more scarce" so that "In house engineering departments can no longer meet the demands of new-generation microprocessors, evolving languages or OS updates."

Piotrowski noted the OS part of the market growing 28.9% per year according to an International Data Corp. report. While the tools market is estimated to be growing 25%, Piotrowski feels that "Because the proprietary share of the market is actually declining 5% per year, the commercial opportunity appears to be expanding approximately 45% per year. Piotrowski pointed to an Embedded Systems Programming magazine survey which said that while 43% of embedded engineers have used a commercial RTOS in the past, 62% plan to use a commercial RTOS in the future.

Piotrowski believes the Diab Data compilers to be a strategic asset, "the importance of this acquisition has not yet become evident in the overall embedded systems market." Diab has highly optimized C/C++ and Java compilers that are "much faster that GNU compilers" which have been popular in the market. The Diab compiler allows embedded programmers to be much more productive in application design and programming. Piotrowski also feels the ISI Design Center also a valuable asset as companies outsource embedded design and development.

Under new market opportunities for ISI, Piotrowski notes the automotive and consumer electronics. Piotrowski sees the automotive electronics growing rapidly over the next five years as microcontroller prices fall. "Integrated expects design wins in this space in the near term. We believe the company's significant presence in the automotive sector with its MATRIXx development tool set will provide it with an advantage over competitors."

In the consumer market Piotrowski noted ISI already has numerous design wins for digital cameras and set-top boxes although they have not translated into high production royalties yet. Piotrowski sees digital cameras, digital video recorders and set top boxes as "fertile territory for hard deterministic OSs such as pSOS. " Piotrowski believes few consumer product OEMS want to have the Windows CE Microsoft brand name appear on their product because of reliability problems.

Overall it is a positive report on the both ISI and the industry. I believe Piotrowski also is quite positive on Wind River. Everen Securities is located in Chicago.
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