Manana stocks. Yeah, I would put Case in the same category, though I think its a better business with comparable upside to Cyprus. (If you hold these for 3-5 years, you are looking for doubles at least.
The reason I bought Amax copper is the contrarian value story plus two other points:
1) 7% dividend yield, which may or may not be etched in stone, but at least is there now. And they could pay it if the choose to - this is not a cash constrained company.
2) I have done some quantitative work that shows that basic industry cyclicals, (copper, steel) substantially outperform the market between December and March. The crappier the business, the better the seasonal bounce. This is a phenomenon that goes back years. I don't know why, but they do. (Part of it might be January effect, but its more than that.) So I am looking for a quick 11-14 here. Maybe its a double in 3 years, but that's not why I bought it.
Jim |
