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Technology Stocks : Compaq
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To: Nixpix who wrote (38729)12/5/1998 5:00:00 AM
From: rupert1  Read Replies (1) of 97611
 
Nixie Ritter: Your clear analysis was based on a forward looking p/e for the whole of 1999, and it is a useful exercise. There will come a point in 1999 when the market will begin to evaluate 2000 and beyond. That analysis will take into consideration projected rates of growth based on 1998/9 performance. Differentials between the p/e of computer hardware companies will narrow or widen as their relative prospects change. The trick is to understand the fundamentals so that investment timing can be informed and intelligent.

If conviction grows that CPQ will make $2.0 or $2.50 in 1999, the market will be biased towards an extrapolation of growth into 2000. Based on 1999 performance, as it occurs, the p/e should float up, anyway. Over and above this you get exaggerated surges, from time to time.
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