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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: Madharry who wrote (5390)12/5/1998 7:40:00 PM
From: James Clarke  Read Replies (1) of 78746
 
I gave Fedex a good look right at the bottom, but kept the bat on my shoulder because I was waiting for investors to really panic about a strike - they never did and I missed the easy money. The Barrons article makes a pretty good case that this one could go up a lot more. Definitely worth a long look.

Another play on your post office thesis is CNF, Consolidated Freight. This is Emory airfreight and a trucking company. When the Postal Service outsourced half of their Priority Mail business, CNF got the contract which looks like a real winner for them. The question now is do they get the other half, which probably comes up for bid soon. It makes sense to me that the company already doing half the business has vast advantages in bidding on the other half. And the stock looks pretty cheap on earnings, and if they make their numbers on the Priority Mail business earnings are going to increase. Plus when you're buying a stock on low P/E it is very nice to see that the business is NOT firing on all cylinders (i.e. the earnings are not at a peak). The Emory business is a turnaround situation - there's nothing like buying a turnaround on low P/E, because you have the chance to get both an expanding "E" and a higher multiple. This one also deserves a look, although the story is not easy to figure out.

Jim
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