Jim: helpful response. Thanks. Still fighting myself on some of these real estate picks. JOE, as I've posted, I have missed for at least 20 straight years. Pretty sad. Even two months ago, I posted about it at $20, but STILL didn't buy. (It's 24+ now). Obvious mental block on my part -g-.
I've got a small position CCS and recently bought a very small amount of CDX (instead of JOE). Castle and Cook is a big land owner and developer in Hawaii, with operations in Orlando and north of Los Angeles (Bakersfield). Catellus Development owns/develops properties in Los Angeles and San Francisco. Problem with these two companies is with the evaluation. To prove that value exceeds current price -- very difficult. Plus, in a down market, there is no dividend or easily understood book value which could give some support. One supporting point is that value investors and insiders are buying (to some extent) these companies. Still, some faith and a long term outlook are required with these two (on my part anyway). I'm looking to add to my positions if prices come down a little more from current. (Note: if anyone actually does remember my earlier post on CCS, I bought about 14 and sold most in the company's Dutch tender @ 19.)
Jim, where you and I do agree is that CYM is a buy. Here, I am in your situation ala LHO. I've bought higher and averaged down. Where you are looking for a short term move to 13-14, I am looking for a long term move to 18. To me, this is a regression-to-the-mean type stock.
There hasn't been a year in the past 10 when this stock has not sold at 18 or higher. (Stock's now about 11). That day will come again. I think management is actually doing something to make that happen. Again IMO. Meanwhile, I'll take the dividend. (And of course, given my penchant for diversification, this stock, CYM, is only a small part of a diversified portfolio--- just in case you (-g-) should be wrong and the stock craters from here(-g-)).
Paul. |
