Paul and I think similarly, but generally we give each other ideas - i.e. we start with different stocks. The fact that we are both in CYM for the same reason, independently of each other, gives me additional conviction that I did not make a mistake on my analysis. Maybe we're both wrong, but if I saw Mike Burry and Paul Senior buying something independently of each other, I'd certainly give it a look.
CYM has among the lowest cost copper mines in the world. In addition they have coal and gold mining assets. I think the only thing more unpopular than copper and gold mines today is Ken Starr. But Ken doesn't pay a 7% dividend. I have no idea what the catalyst will be, but copper will not trade below 80 cents and gold will not trade below $320 forever.
CYM has historically been an awful investment to hold long term. You've got to pick off the big moves. You've got to get both the buy and the sell right, because the wind is not at your back on this one. Ben Graham used to tell this story in his class which Warren Buffett related in an old Berkshire report:
A rancher takes his horse to the vet and says "Look, I don't know what to do with this animal. Some days he can run like a thorougbred, other days he is lame as a mule." The vet thought for a moment, and said "When he can walk, sell him." That is my strategy for Cyprus Amax.
Jim |
