Fred - yes, valuing the company on a per subscriber/member basis is the right way to do COMPARISON valuation. That doesn't necessarily mean that the ENTIRE group isn't overvalued. But at least it tells us what AMEN should be worth at any given point in time. And you were very close - I believe they have just UNDER 125,000 registered members. If you want to take the analysis to the next level, you need to figure out how the revenue stream will break down over time between subscription fees (in this case, zero), advertising and sponsorship fees (right now, the bulk) and e-commerce or sales revs (ramping up with help from Gofishnet and certain other partnerships). Each of those streams will grow at a different rate and has some ceiling potential (esp. the subscription and e-commerce).
Anyway, as I posted last week, I sold out of a third of my warrants at $18 on Monday morning, making 20X my money. Still hold the other two thirds, and half my shares and am up 5X altogether, even with the pullback. Even if the company goes out of business, I will still have quadrupled my money - that allows me the luxury of sitting on the rest of my holdings and wait for the business to mature or get bought out. This rally was certainly valuable in terms of putting AMEN on the radar screen of the other portals, who may want a quick entry into addressing the needs of this large but very targeted audience.
Congrats to all who were smart enought to cash out of part if not all on this rally. To those who bought into it, you were the "greater fools" who lost this game. Try to learn from this experience so that you can be on the other side of the trade the next time a situation like this occurs.
Turs |
