Predict The Future? Forget About It!
11/16/98
Electronic News
Page 8(1)
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I have learned not to predict how the winds will blow in this crazy business. As cliche as it may sound, the only constant in this business is change. Some might wonder why there would be so much change associated with a product as simple as memory. I mean, let's face the fact that memory is not brain surgery. It all comes down to how fast it can go, how much of it is available in the marketplace, and how much it costs. In those three simple issues lie the basis for the changes that seem to come at us faster than we wish they would. Let's take a quick look at each of these issues.
There are so many competing memory technologies on the horizon that the question of how fast memory can go has become very confusing. We have PC133 around the corner as well as Rambus, Sync Link, Double Data Rate and other technologies all ready to take us beyond the current PC66 and PC100 speeds. Which will be the standard of choice? Rambus certainly looks strong, but beyond that, all I am willing to say is that speeds will increase - and dramatically!
As far as the worldwide memory supply, it seems like just yesterday that there was more than enough memory out there to satisfy all takers and then some, but now we are hearing words like, "allocation" and "shortages" again. Of course, that affects pricing. Just when we were all ready to give up as prices continued to slip to obscene levels, the shortages are creating pricing spikes that don't appear to be leveling off anytime soon. These are all developments that only few could have predicted and only then with some serious luck!
So, let me conclude by saying that I am sorry to not offer something more concrete. I guess the best I can do is offer the advice: Hang on and enjoy the ride!
Craig Yerkes is managing director for Memory Card Technology in the U.S. More information about MCT is available at www.memory-card- technology.com. |
