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Biotech / Medical : Mylan Labs
MYL 15.860.0%Nov 19 4:00 PM EST
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To: David Lawrence who wrote (363)12/6/1998 7:27:00 PM
From: Tenpoint  Read Replies (2) of 384
 
You could be right but there are alot of things that can happen between the open and the close of the week.

1. The news releases published on the Internet do not mention the fact that there will be 20 more of Mylan's products raised in price later this month. The New York Times stated this. Like throwing gas on the fire. I doubt anyone in business since 1961 would be so dumb. Alot of the other statements where merely heresay and assumptions.

2. Mylan's past history and reputation of doing the right things may draw some investors into the stock that have been waiting on the sidelines for what everyone is assuming a big drop on Monday. Don't count on it.

3. Dividend has yet to be declared. There could be a split or special higher dividend coming which would really screw any new short sellers. Reason being is the majority of the shareholders still left here at the 32 to 35 range have been here for quite sometime and I know one that isn't going to jump this ship. The old shorts have been covering.

4. 5 million share repurchase hasn't even been dented. Last count I remember seeing is about 145,000 shares.

6. It could be a bear trap. After all, the sources for the New York Times was Mylan and their lawyers. The FTC didn't comment.

7. As far as I know their are now more manufacturers of the drug (Lorezapam) that has drawn so much attention from the FTC then there was before the big increase. I believe that would be pro-consumer.

8. Institutional holdings have increased to about 75% as of 9/30/98.

9. More and more Health Maintenance Organizations are refusing to pay for branded drugs. America needs the generic industry. The Times article mentioned that the fixed income and elderly rely on low cost knock offs which is true but I would bet that the rich in this country are just as apt to ask for a generic rather then the brand. That is why they have their money because they are conscious of where their dollars go. I bet the poor and/or underpriviledged are just as likely to get a branded drug as the rich. The Federal & State Governments have been and probably always will rob Peter to pay Paul. Medicare and the state run prescription plans for the elderly should be the first ones to deny paying for the branded drugs. Are they? No.

10. Last and least for keeping me in the stock is the possibility of a merger.

I hope that helps David.
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