Hi Paul, I don't think everyone should just looks at quarter to quarter
growth.
I think that what happened in 1996 was a momentum style of
investing that became popular. It's true that at times there's a
herd mentality and that's okay if you are ahead of the herd.
But, if people had looked at the fundamentals, then they
would have noticed that CSCC p/e got out of hand and now it
has the same pe as ASND for 1997 of 47. I remember in the
summer when the July selloff came, it dropped ASND down to
39 and there were those saying ASND was an ex-momentum stock,
and CSCC was a better buy,
and ASND was bad since it was slower to rebound. At that time
ASND had a 1996 pe of 39 at the July 1996 lows. At that time,
I posted some positive comments on ASND, since I believe in
buying on weakness.
I think the analyst estimates were guided and they know that
there is a product transition going on.
I think it's better to look at fundamentals and buy on weakness.
If you did, then Intel
was a buy Jan 96 at $50 to $54, even though all the semiconductor
stocks were going down. Or buy Intel when they had the
Pentium bug (product transition).
I'm wondering why all the 1997 estimates and 1998
estimates for Intel are rising so high. Didn't this happen with Micron
in 1996. What about MSFT? Didn't their stock decline from
110 to 85 before the split when they released Win95 (product
transition).
For momentum plays, seems like zitl was a recent one. Now
it seems QUIG (40% faster recovery for colds) is hot. Look at
all those postings there. Anybody playing AMLN, it's supposed
to have -1.25 1996 earnings, and -1.76 1997 earnings.
Now does negative earnings make a stock go up or what?
But seriously, it seems that sometimes money flows from networking
to semi's and to software at different times. I think we just have
to be patient and look at the fundamentals and the technology.
My feeling is that the news is neutral short-term, but positive long-term. So I say that ASND will follow the Nasdaq in
terms of price movement.
Good Luck,
David |
