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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical Analysis - Beginners
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To: Richard Estes who wrote (2005)1/17/1997 1:26:00 AM
From: David Russell Coburn II   of 12039
 
Hi Richard,
I was looking over some charts tonight that I have seen talked about on the thread. I was having some thoughts and decided to see what you thought about them. If you can point out differences in mine and your analysis I would appreciate it. I sometimes feel like I don't know the protocal of the board and that I have acted improperly but it has always been unintentional.

Anyway someone, I think Stephen, was high on PEV so I was looking at the chart and trying to see what he saw.

POSITIVES:

1.)I have a StochRSI(14) buy on 1/10/97. This may be a little different than others because I have moved my thresholds to 35/75. A little slower in, a little quicker out.

2.)I have a StochRSIdrc(14) buy on 1/10/97. This is simply the StochRSI(14) vs. its' 40 day MA. xing buys and sells.

3.)I have a DNS buy on 1/15/97

4.)ATR is about .525 which is about 3.4% of the price so there isn't much chance of getting stopped out accidentally with a 7% stop.

5.)The channel is very narrow so its not much good for day traders, which I am not.

6.)180 day MA on volume is about 250,000, pretty good.

7.)Both .02/.2 and .05/.2 PARs are good currently.

NEGATIVES:

1.)OBV is actually pretty flat since the big buys on 11/19 and 11/20. This tells me that since they were made at about $12.00 and the price now is $15.50 these investors already have about 30% profit and they haven't sold because OBV has been flat. There's going to be some pretty major resistance somewhere above. Could be very close.

2.)Last four days on candlesticks look bearish to me. May have hit the resistance.

3.)Before the two big moves in May and Nov. the 5,13,40 day MA's on volume were below the 180 day MA. This is not the case now.

*********************************************************************

After saying all the above and actually I could put several more indicators into the POSITIVE list. I must admit that the OBV and resistance that I am expecting would have me very worried. Not so much about losing money as languishing around +/-$1.00 for a long time. I would buy it but I would put a very close stop on it. Maybe 5%. If it didn't change my mind about the resistance within a month I would sell it and get something better.

Also my exit stratagy would be using the three indicators I like and keeping my stop very close. I don't think PAR would work here because of the slow movement I would be expecting.

Comments from anybody are welcome. I trying to learn.

Thanks for your support.

DRC
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