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Non-Tech : Amati investors
AMTX 1.5100.0%10:04 AM EST
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To: srvhap who wrote (8597)1/17/1997 2:58:00 AM
From: JW@KSC   of 31386
 
[What do you think?]

srvhap - I have read your post through a couple of times, I like to see projections, and I thanks you for posting yours. However you have made a lot of assumptions and maybe some of the others could help us locate a more accurate numbers to plug in. Example:

>> 18,000,00 online users this year.
Now if we assume that the number of users grows at the rate of 30 percent per year (year over year) <<

I feel the Internet is growing faster than 30%.

The main thing I do not see in your analysis is X2 anywhere? if there are 18 million modems sold (by Telcos/ISPs or retail) then there are an equal amount purchased by the Telcos or ISP's, and here we are talking about DSLAMS not modems.
The DSLAMS cost **significantly** more than an equal #of consumer modems that you could stuff into a DSLAM. Some will have individual modem cards, some such as Amati's DSLAM ( I believe called Symphony) use TI's 4 modems on a single-chip, reducing power and the by-product HEAT. Both will have additional Controller Cards, etc. These are Ethernet. (correct so far Steve M.?) Still to come is Amati's ATM & Partner. Hope Amati's Cisco Kid (JG) has a rabbit in the hat!

So my question is, did you use X2 in the modem equation?

BTW: You seemed to use only US Stats, this is world wide.

JW@KSC



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