Micron Only Forum Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum

MU 241.14

-6.7%

Dec 12 9:30 AM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Carl Held who wrote (41283)	12/7/1998 8:13:00 AM
From: Carl R.	Read Replies (1) of 53903

Thanks Carl. Actually in this piece you can see the reason why the market has recovered, and why such a recovery was foreseeable, even if the world economy itself didn't recover. Anyone who wasn't expecting it hasn't paid much attention to history. Look at the US in 1929 and you will find that after the initial crash the market went on another bull run that lasted until spring of the following year. Look at the Nikkei when it crashed and you see the same thing. In neither case did the second peak exceed the prior one, but the effect was similar. Soon enough we will be at the critical juncture where the market will decide its next direction, but I doubt it will come before the end of January. I see two distinct possibilities. At one extreme the world could slide into recession or depression, which of course would lead financial markets into a gut wrenching bear market which would stop only when individual investors finally gave up the notion that stocks always go up. At the other extreme strong demand for Y2K hardware could prop up the economies of Asia allowing them to begin a strong recovery, beginning a new round of worldwide economic health. (Of course a year 2000 hangover from a 1999 hardware buying binge could put us right back where we are, but we'll save that discussion for next year.) Between these two extremes we have a number of intermediate possibilities where we will probably end up. In actual fact I believe that market moods could easily swing from one extreme to the other several times next year, and I believe that 1999 could well be one of the most volatile years on record for the market. Time will tell, but in the meantime, keep your eye on hardware sales and the strength of the Asian economies because in my opinion they hold the key to our ability to avoid a recession before 2000. Carl

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next