Mika:
Thanks for this informative post. Funny, reading between the lines, I didn't find the ITU position to be all that negative for Qualcomm.
My biased North American perspective is as follows: the ITU understands that QC's IPR is essential to the proposed W-CDMA standard and that Qualcomm is in a position to block Ericsson's direct sequence spread spectrum strategy if an accommodation cannot be reached. Ericsson's believes that it holds sufficient IPR to force QC to horse-trade on 3G, but this position does NOT extend to IS-95C/HDR.
I believe that this impasse benefits Qualcomm substantially. Keep in mind that it was Ericsson that perceived the need to move to a CDMA-based air interface as a competitive response to IS-95 and to facilitate deployment of 3G-type wireless services. One can reasonably presume that Ericsson would not have pursued a CDMA-based solution were it able to achieve similar performance out of its core and proven TDMA-based technologies. As I have noted before, every CDMA system in the world today represents marketshare lost by TDMA-based GSM.
The future as I see it is therefore pretty black and white. ERICY MUST compromise on the convergence issue because it cannot allow the North Americans to pursue an IS-95 based strategy that ultimately displaces TDMA-based technologies as the demand for high data rate and 3G services expands next decade. Ericsson will push for the best deal that it can get, and Qualcomm cannot overplay its hand, but given Ericsson's annunciated strategy, not to mention its need to service customers like DoCoMo, compromise is inevitable. Imagine, if you will, how frustrated DoCoMo must be...DDI/IDO is up and running with IS-95 style CDMA and could deploy high data rate services by 2000-2001. As it stands now, DoCoMo could find itself without a 3G response, which ultimately would impair its current strong market position. This, of course, is not an acceptable outcome for DoCoMo. Imagine, if you will, the impact on Ericsson's strategy were DoCoMo to abandon its support for W-CDMA and deploy IS-95. Such a sea change could materially and permanently alter the balance of power between QC and ERICY and substantively impact the terms of whatever agreement is finally reached between the two concerns.
Best regards,
Gregg |
