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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 668.73+1.5%Nov 24 4:00 PM EST
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To: HairBall who wrote (875)12/8/1998 12:32:00 PM
From: AJ Berger  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
My Current Approach to Portfolio Management

If you agree that the market will trend
sideways or lower most of next year as
the World economic conditions continue
to undermine the US economy; consumer
debt burden increase from low interest
rates begin to show their ugly side,
as layoffs at US exporter continue;
and suspect a Y2K sell off next year,
Here's a simple thing to do NOW.

Compare the Stock prices of what you have
now against the recent highs made in July'98.
If your stock is trading at or below those
levels, you should look to sell them off,
or at least reduce your exposure by 50%
during the next couple of weeks.

Any stock trading above the July'98 highs
should be held for now. Enjoy the ride
at least until the next market downturn
becomes apherent, and then be prepared
to sell 50% of those stocks.

When market looks bleakest, you'll have a
nice cash reserve for bargin hunting. Try
to focus on those stocks that already
exceeded July'98 highs since then.

Don't short stocks no matter how high
they get, wait to do that in a Downturn
market, not a sideways or bullish phase.

I'm using this over simplified approach
with a friends portfolio, and he feels
very comfortable with it, given the past
history of the market and his stocks.
(I'm a short term event trader, so this
does not apply to me.)
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