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Politics : Ask Michael Burke

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To: Mary Cluney who wrote (38599)	12/8/1998 3:48:00 PM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (1) of 132070

Mary, i suggest you do some research as to how tech industry's and Wall St touts track record is for forecasting before you take so much comfort in them. I don't recall any of them predicting that excess capacity and debt would cause a recession/depression in SEA. Now these same dolts presume to be able to forecast growth in an area of the world that has a long way to go before recovery. Rick Whitington of Soundview Financial forecast that Micron would earn $17 / sh in 1997 CNBS touted him as if his words were from God's lips. I heard countless stories about DRAM shortages would last until the year 2000. I don't have the numbers in front of me but if memory serves the SIA forecast growth 18% for 1997 the actual results were a decline of 9% . how is that for forecasting-g- What really gets me is CNBS touts the recent SIA forecast with nary a word about their lousy track record. If a bear makes an appearance of CNBS they make darn sure the audience knows they have been wrong for whatever length of time. I would also suspect that few of the optimistic forecasts allow for a recession in the U.S. . Mike

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