Frank and Curtis: I simply don't now how such a claim as "throughput" doubling every 100 days [which extends to a ten-fold or greater annual nut to swallow] can be substantiated ...
I've looked for the origins of this number, and it seems to have come from UUNET and then become widely reported after that. It is in the Congressional record of May 11 98, from hearings on intenet taxation and commerce. From Senator McCain's testimony:
"Because the Internet is new and its uses are developing
very rapidly, reliable economy-wide statistics are hard to
find and further research is needed. Therefore, we have to
use industry and company examples to illustrate the rapid
pace at which Internet commerce is being deployed and
benefits are being realized. Examples showing the growth of
the Internet in electronic commerce this past year are
numerous.
Fewer than 40 million people around the world were
connected to the Internet during 1996. By the end of 1997,
more than 100 million people were using the Internet. As of
December 1996, about 627,000 Internet domain names had been
registered. By the end of 1997, the number of domain names
more than doubled to reach 1.5 million.
Traffic on the Internet has been doubling every 100 days.
Madam President, I feel compelled to repeat that.
Traffic on the Internet has been doubling every 100 days."
Senator McCain is quoting a report from the Department of Commerce, "The Emerging Digital Economy," April 98. That report footnotes a 1997 white paper by the Inktomi Corporation White Paper at this URL
inktomi.com
If you go to that white paper (which tries to convince you that their server is the answer), you get
"The capacity crunch is real and will continue for quite some time," says Mike O'Dell, chief scientist of UUNET, one of the world's largest Internet backbone providers. UUNet estimates that network traffic is doubling every 100 days as graphics, audio, and video become more common. This rate means that bandwidth demands are increasing at five times the rate of Moore's Law. The ability to build network capacity cannot keep pace. O'Dell concludes, "Demand will far outstrip supply for the foreseeable future."
So it appears that the source for this estimate is UUNET, who has no reason to inflate numbers, right? ;-) BTW, the UUNET Marketing VP also gave out this number at the Spring 98 Internet World.
Does anyone have independent confirmation of the "doubling every 100 day" estimate? |
