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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 684.84+0.6%4:00 PM EST
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To: Debra Orlow who wrote (964)12/8/1998 8:17:00 PM
From: TRINDY  Read Replies (2) of 99985
 
Debra, MDA thread--I have developed an indicator based on statistical analysis of time series that has done a pretty good job of tracking the market. It yields directional signals, not indicators of the magnitude of moves. Currently I am getting essentially neutral readings, tending toward negativity. The Dow is yielding slightly negative readings but he NAZ and SPX are still in positive territory. Importantly, the TRAN is still looking positive, possibly owing to falling energy prices. I'm in the sideways camp for a while. Generally I think we are in a mania and am looking for reasons to short this market. Don't see it as yet, but possibly we are getting close. I will post my findings on this thread from time to time, especially when changes in direction seem to be indicated. BTW I think that impeachment is not priced into the market and I'm slightly astounded that the market doesn't seem to be paying as much attention to this issue as I think it should. The repercussions of impeachment on the market could well be dramatic. If it gets through the House, for which there is at least a 50/50 chance, it will have a bearing on the market for at least a month. There are many who believed that it wouldn't make it through the House. Momentum seems to be building. It could well build further if it gets to the Senate. Interesting times.
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